Experience

 Morning Comments Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with mixed Asian markets today and mixed US markets on Tuesday.… U.S. stock indexes closed mostly lower on Tuesday as investors cautiously looked ahead to March inflation data due Wednesday that could help determine the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move. Corporate earnings reporting season also is set to kick off in earnest on Friday. The March CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US, which tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, is expected to show a 5.1% rise from a year earlier, slowing from a 6% year-over-year rise in the previous month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones. Meanwhile, the IMF said recent stress in the banking sector could reduce the ability of U.S. banks to lend over the next year, and materially lower U.S. economic growth. The IMF estimated that lending capacity in the U.S. could fall by almost 1% in the coming year. That w...

 Morning comments Indian markets could open mildly higher, in line with mostly higher Asian markets today and sharply positive US markets on Friday.… U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Friday, following a softer-than-expected inflation report for February. The Nasdaq Composite ended March with its largest quarterly gain since 2020. For the week, the Dow gained 3.2% while the S&P rose 3.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.4%. The Dow and S&P 500 each booked its best week since November, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For the month, the Dow rose 1.9%, the S&P 500 increased 3.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 6.7%. In the first quarter, the S&P 500 advanced 7% and the Dow edged up 0.4%. The Nasdaq soared 16.8% in the first three months of 2023 to notch its largest quarterly percentage rise since the second quarter of 2020. The personal-consumption-expenditures, or PCE, price index increased 0.3% in February, with inflation slowing to 5% year over year from 5.3% in Januar...

 Morning Comments Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with largely higher Asian markets today and despite lower US markets on Tuesday.… U.S. stocks ended modestly lower on Tuesday, dragged down by a selloff in technology stocks as investors closely assessed the state of the banking sector and the health of the economy. Bond yields continued to extend gains with the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rising back above 4% on Tuesday, putting pressure on the technology sector. An important clue to the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve policy will come on Friday when the PCE inflation gauge for February will be published. Tuesday’s data included advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, showing the deficit in goods increased 0.6% to $91.6 billion in February — basically flat in the month. U.S. consumer confidence in March beat forecasts, rising 104.2 from a revised 103.4. Despite the financial anxiety and stressors out there now, the upbeat numbers show the job market’s stre...

 Morning Comments Indian markets could open flat to mildly lower, in line with range bound and mixed Asian markets today and despite higher US markets on Thursday.… U.S. stocks finished higher in volatile trading on Thursday, clawing back some of the Wednesday’s selloff as investors attempted to shake off concerns about banking-sector stability and the impact of an expected credit crunch. Gains in megacaps like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. put the Nasdaq 100 close to the threshold of a bull market after an almost 20% surge from its December low. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said late Thursday the federal government would take extra steps to stabilize the U.S. banking system if necessary, in prepared remarks for a House hearing. The Swiss central bank lifted borrowing costs by 50 basis points after local authorities helped put together a hastily arranged deal for UBS Group to take over scandal-scarred crosstown rival Credit Suisse Group. In the U.K., the Bank of England rais...

  Morning Comments Indian markets could open mildly higher, in line with positive Asian markets today and sharply higher US markets on Tuesday.… U.S. stocks finished sharply higher on Tuesday as anxiety about the banking sector receded after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s reassurances on containing the banking crisis buoyed market sentiment. All three major stock indexes booked back-to-back gains ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. There’s an 83% chance of a 25-basis-point increase to the federal-funds rate when the Fed wraps its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Reports that the U.S. Treasury is considering boosting the guarantees on bank deposits was also helping the mood. Asian shares displayed a cautious bounce on Wednesday with hopes a global banking crisis would be avoided vying with uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. interest rates as the Federal Reserve holds a high-stakes meeting on policy on We...

 Morning comments Indian markets could open mildly higher, in line with largely positive Asian markets today and higher US markets on Monday.… U.S. stocks rallied to finish near session highs on Monday, as investors appeared becalmed by the latest efforts to stave off a potential global banking crisis ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.  US stocks finished higher as regulators worldwide rushed to shore up market confidence, with the recent financial turmoil spurring speculation on a slower pace of tightening from major central banks. The US Fed, meanwhile, faces a dilemma at its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as it tries to balance its inflation fight against worries over the stability of the financial system. The Fed is between a rock and hard place when it comes to trying to bring down inflation by hiking rates and not putting undue pressure on the banking system. Fed-funds futures traders, who earlier this month had braced for a rate hike o...

 Morning comments Indian markets could open lower, in line with largely negative Asian markets today and lower US markets on Friday.… U.S. stocks ended lower Friday as worries about banking-sector stability reemerged following a bankruptcy filing by SVB Financial Group and the release of data showing banks borrowed $165 billion from the Federal Reserve over the past week. For the week, the Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%. Nasdaq saw its biggest weekly percentage gain since January. Investors are trying to get a sense for how quickly the economy may be slowing and whether the problems in the banking sector will lead to an “accelerated slowing. In economic news, the Conference Board said Friday that the U.S. leading economic index fell 0.3% in February, marking the 11th straight monthly decline. U.S. industrial production was flat in February, data released Friday by the Fed show. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s latest reading on consume...

 USDINR: (Bias- Slow downward drift. Range- 82.35-82.90)   Like clockwork, the template once again turned positive for the Indian Rupee, as USDINR neared the upper end of its 80.50 and 83.00 range. On one hand, global risk sentiments are strong and on the other, traders are now expecting India to post a current account surplus for the March quarter. The news of First Republic bank of the US being rescued has boosted sentiments and as a result, we are seeing a big bull rally across global equity markets. It is early to say whether the banking stress in the US is over or whether there will be more such issues in the coming days. Historically, financial sector stress tends to unfold in waves but this time around, regulators remain ready to act decisively and that is what can give comfort to the markets. We could see a short covering rally in the Indian equity and that can support the Indian Rupee.   Generally, it has been observed that on Fridays, when risk sentiment remains...

Morning Comments Indian markets could open higher, in line with positive Asian markets today and sharply higher US markets on Tuesday.… U.S. stocks ended sharply higher in volatile trade on Tuesday, rebounding from their steep losses in the aftermath of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, as investors digested February inflation data which matched estimates and suggested pressure on prices may be easing. February’s consumer-price index came in largely at expectations. The cost of living stood at 6% year over year, down from 6.4% a month earlier. Stripping out food and energy prices, the core CPI number was up 5.5% year over year, ticking down from the 5.6% print in January. The 6% headline number is the lowest since September 2021. Stocks of America’s regional banks, which have been under pressure, showed a bounce on Tuesday. There might be some hope the February data — combined with the interest rate pressures on banks — could convince the Fed to stop rate hikes all together. Other ma...

Indian markets could open lower, in line with negative Asian markets today and sharply lower US markets on Thursday.… U.S. stocks finished sharply lower on Thursday, with the financial sector logging a sharp one-day drop, while investors awaited Friday’s February employment data that could help decide how large an interest rate hike the Federal Reserve will impose at its next meeting in two weeks. U.S. stocks gave up early morning gains to close sharply lower as investors fled the bank sector following SVB Financial Group’s asset sale (disclosed large losses from securities sales and a stock offering meant to provide a boost to its balance sheet.) and the announcement of Silvergate Capital Corp.’s decision to wind down is crypto banking operations. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early March jumped to a 10-week high of 211,000, the highest level since Christmas. That’s higher than the 195,000 new applicants that economists polled by the Wall Street Jour...

  Indian markets could open flat, in line with rangebound Asian markets today and mixed US markets on Wednesday.… U.S. stock indexes ended mixed on Wednesday, attempting to recover from Tuesday’s broad-based selloff following comments by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell suggesting more interest rate rises may be necessary to tame inflation than investors were expecting. Investors tuned in to the second day of Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress in which Powell said the central bank has not made any decision on the size of a potential interest rate hike later this month despite strong labor market data and a rise in inflation in January. The US trade deficit widened by 1.6% to $68.3 billion in January. U.S. imports rose 3% to $325.8 billion in January, while exports were up 3.4% to $257.5 billion.  U.S. private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, according to the payroll services firm ADP on Wednesday. That’s up from a revised 119,000 in ...