Experience

 Morning Comments Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with largely higher Asian markets today and despite lower US markets on Tuesday.… U.S. stocks ended modestly lower on Tuesday, dragged down by a selloff in technology stocks as investors closely assessed the state of the banking sector and the health of the economy. Bond yields continued to extend gains with the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rising back above 4% on Tuesday, putting pressure on the technology sector. An important clue to the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve policy will come on Friday when the PCE inflation gauge for February will be published. Tuesday’s data included advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, showing the deficit in goods increased 0.6% to $91.6 billion in February — basically flat in the month. U.S. consumer confidence in March beat forecasts, rising 104.2 from a revised 103.4. Despite the financial anxiety and stressors out there now, the upbeat numbers show the job market’s stre...

 USDINR: (Bias- Rangebound. Range- 82.10-82.60)   A powerful cocktail of risk-on sentiment in the world's financial markets, a declining US Dollar Index, and year-end inflows of Indian corporations may cause the Rupee to appreciate against the US Dollar. We might witness USDINR attempt a break of support near 82.00 and move towards 81.60/70 levels unless the central bank intervenes to mop up the flows. Large speculative bets may be off limits because it is the conclusion of the financial year, but offshore speculators might not face these restrictions. Trading today can be difficult. Positional bets are not favoured over intraday scalping. One can play for levels between 81.60 and 70 if USDINR sustains a break below 82.00, but they must use sufficient stop losses. Similarly, if the pair exhibits resistance to maintaining below 82.00 levels, one can try long trades on a spot basis with a stop loss below 81.95 levels. One can concentrate on the short iron fly, hedged approach ra...