USDINR: (Bias- Rangebound. Range- 82.10-82.60)
A powerful cocktail of risk-on sentiment in the world's financial markets, a declining US Dollar Index, and year-end inflows of Indian corporations may cause the Rupee to appreciate against the US Dollar. We might witness USDINR attempt a break of support near 82.00 and move towards 81.60/70 levels unless the central bank intervenes to mop up the flows. Large speculative bets may be off limits because it is the conclusion of the financial year, but offshore speculators might not face these restrictions.
Trading today can be difficult. Positional bets are not favoured over intraday scalping. One can play for levels between 81.60 and 70 if USDINR sustains a break below 82.00, but they must use sufficient stop losses. Similarly, if the pair exhibits resistance to maintaining below 82.00 levels, one can try long trades on a spot basis with a stop loss below 81.95 levels. One can concentrate on the short iron fly, hedged approach rather than the short straddle.
GBPINR: (Bias- Upward drift. Range- 101.10-101.70)
There are no significant economic events this week for GBP. Therefore, the US Dollar Index's general trend and themes of risk on and risk off will both influence the GBPUSD and GBPINR. The GBPUSD is up against strong opposition near the 1.2350/70 zone, but support is found close to 1.2170/80 levels. GBPINR encounters significant opposition near the 101.50/70 levels and support close to the 100.00 handle. We anticipate today's market action to be range bound with an upward drift.
EURINR: (Bias- Upward drift. Range- 88.85-89.45)
The IFO index, the most important leading indicator in Germany, rose in March, rising to 93.3 from 91.1 in February, for the sixth consecutive month. Economic confidence has increased as a result of lower wholesale gas costs and the reopening of the Chinese economy. As long as the EURUSD pair remains above the 1.0650 levels, we stay bullish; however, below that level, we would become neutral. The levels near 1.0950 and 1.1030 present significant support. Support levels for the EURINR are at 88.40 and 88.00. The levels of 89.20 and 90.00 present resistance.
JPYINR: (Bias- Upward drift. Range- 63.00-63.60)
The USDJPY has been able to keep its downward bias as long as the US 2 year maintains below the 4% level. That tendency is aided by a generally weak US dollar. As long as the pair maintains a position above 61.50 levels, we continue to be optimistic on JPYINR. The day's bias is still to trade within a range with an upward drift. However, the benefits of a weak USDJPY may be offset by a weak USDINR.
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